Faisal Alshammeri

For to the majority of political commentators in the United States, the November Congressional Elections in 2022 will be a disaster for President Biden and the Democratic Party. They are also at risk in the upcoming Senate elections. The implications of such a political setback are numerous. Foremost among them is the conception of the Biden Presidency as a lame duck presidency.

This expression is used to denote that a sitting president in the White House is helpless in the last few months of his presidential tenure following the election of his successor.

  In the case of Joe Biden, it will be more than two years before he leaves the White House if he is either not reelected in November 2024 or if he declines to seek reelection. It will mean the loss of power by Biden while no transition to another president has been arranged. It will be more than a situation of discontent with Biden and the Democrats. It could put the United States’ political system at risk if the executive branch of government couldn’t run the country. Examining several political factors reveals why a Biden Lame-Duck Presidency will turn the office of the President of the United States into a shadow political figure.

Definitely, there is a challenge that emanates from the existence of a two-party political system. This is the nature of a democratic system of government where political offices are contested aggressively, and each party tries to undermine the legitimacy and stature of the other party. Second, there are also genuine objections to Biden’s policies. For instance, many oppose his climate programs seeing it as too radical. His plan to conserve 30% of U.S. land and water by 2030 is not welcomed in many Congressional constituencies. The huge social spending money, estimated at a price tag of $3.5 trillion over 10 years, is resented by many Americans.

Also, demographic changes make important political trends in American politics and society clear and easy to understand. As an example, the Democratic Party is gradually losing the vote of the ever-increasing Hispanic population.

One reason attributes this loss to the view by many Hispanics that the Democrats are too liberal on social issues such as abortion and gay marriage. Moreover, the political sentiment inside America nowadays is becoming more conservatives. Many Americans resent the bias of the liberal media and they are finding no appeal for the Democratic Party establishment with its elitist and left-wing leaning dispositions. They have less admiration for the figures of Bill and Hillary Clinton, Barack and Michelle Obama, Nancy Pelosi, Chuck Schumer, and others. Importantly, “It’s the economy, stupid inflation,” the slogan that helped bring down George Herbert Walker Bush and the Republicans in 1992, is just as important today as it was then.

Every American knows that the fastest rise of every commodity’s price in four decades is costing the American family a lot of money. Worse, there is a belief among Americans that such a negative economic trend will continue for a long time, and that the White House is not doing much to resolve it. Historically, the party in power loses midterm elections. This has to do with many factors, including the general notion that Americans adhere to which is to achieve political balance through the allocation of political offices between the party in power and the party in opposition. Nevertheless, the logic of a divided government has led to major crises in the American system of government and to stalemate in much of the political work in Washington, D.C. And if political volatility is the main feature of America’s political culture at present, its biggest manifestation is the mid-term Congressional elections, when millions of Americans cast their votes to induce the political changes they desire to implement.

At a grass-roots level, the debate over abortion is energising the American Right. ÷n more than one state, like Oklahoma, for instance. Local legislators are passing laws restricting abortion. Finally, the war in Ukraine could harm President Biden’s political fortunes. If Putin wins, it will be an enormous loss for Biden. If the war goes on for a long time, Americans will disagree with Biden over the wisdom of its continuation. If Putin is defeated, many Americans will still question its cost.

In the end, the election could be both a referendum on Biden and a backlash against many of the Democrats’ policies. No one knows. Perhaps, the lame duck presidency may have commenced with Biden seen as physically frail and mentally not alert. This means that the fight among his advisers may have already begun. Vice President Kamala Harris may be assuming the biggest role in managing the country. This could be an issue the Republicans will use against the Democrats. The ultimate outcome of the election could be a resurgent Donald Trump. Trump may be the most agitated campaigner in American politics, especially if his candidates win many seats in the Congressional elections.

 Writer and Political analyst *