After years of growing authoritarianism under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, an opposition victory in Istanbul’s mayoral election offered a ray of hope that democracy in Turkey was not dead. The election board’s order to nullify the result extinguishes that light. Rerunning the election may give Mr Erdogan and his AKP a chance to regain power in the country’s biggest city. But it will be a hammer blow for Turkey’s political and economic standing, regardless of the outcome. The AKP’s defeat in Istanbul, where Mr Erdogan first made his mark on national politics, was highly significant. It offered a sign that despite Mr Erdogan’s tendency for polarising and conspiratorial rhetoric, Turkey remained a functioning if flawed democracy. The decision of the election board, dominated by members of the ruling party, has put paid to this. Claiming some ballot box committees were improperly appointed, the board has called for a rerun on June 23. The erosion of institutions under Mr Erdogan stands in contrast to his early image as a stable and modernising civilian leader. The attempted coup in July 2016 marked a turning point in Turkey’s shift away from liberal traditions. In the aftermath, 77,000 people were arrested and nearly 130,000 lost their jobs. The election board’s decision to annul an election, while rare, is a further blow to political freedom. There are several risks to this decision. The first is that the Turkish people may simply lose all faith in peaceful democratic politics. This is particularly likely if the AKP wins in a second election. The country has seen civil unrest turn violent in the past. There were several deaths during the 2013 Gezi Park protests, some as a result of police violence. The military, which suffered purges following the 2016 coup attempt, may also show increasing impatience with the AKP — an ominous echo of the past. Turkey’s economic vulnerability could be exacerbated, too. US tariffs helped to push the country into recession last year from which it has yet to recover. Inflation is close to 20 per cent. News of the Istanbul rerun sent the lira to its lowest since October. There are questions over the country’s ability to defend itself in a new lira crisis after disclosures that the central bank had bolstered its foreign currency reserves with billions of dollars of short-term loans. Foreign investors are already wary of a capricious strongman who installed his son-in-law as finance minister over more seasoned economists. Two more months of uncertainty over the political future of Turkey’s commercial capital will only add to this. Mr Erdogan’s government should be focused on strengthening the economy, not on political skulduggery.

The decision also leaves Turkey’s allies in the west in a bind. The longtime Nato member cannot be treated as a rogue state; it remains a vital regional player in dealing with the Syrian civil war and the refugee crisis. Mr Erdogan has already angered Washington by pursuing the purchase of Russian air defence systems, leading to the suspension of deliveries of 100 F-35 fighter jets from the US. Turkey will be increasingly viewed as a problem to be managed rather than a trusted partner if it cannot support democracy. Mr Erdogan in recent weeks faced a choice. He could have acknowledged the AKP lost Istanbul due to economic and political failings, and pledged to reform. Instead, he appears consumed by a lust for power, weakening Turkey domestically and internationally. Defeat in Istanbul was painful to the president and his party. Undermining electoral politics will be infinitely more painful for Turkey and its citizens.

Source; Financial Times