Abstrct:

Tension between Washington and Ankara increases as long as the Turkish intervention in Afrin continues, and the center of this tension is Manbaj, which Turkey regards as the last target of its attack on Afrin. For its part, warned the United States of America that the targeting of this region will lead to a strong response on its part, and came the last warning warning to Turkey by sending high-level generals to Manbj.

The New York Times reports that General Jimmy Gerrard and General Paul Funk visited an American base in Manbeg. The vehicle they were transporting was flying a large American flag to prevent the Euphrates Shield troops from targeting it. The Euphrates Shield is a Turkish-backed force.

Last month, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan threatened that free-fire militants would continue their attacks until they reached the eastern border of Syria. But Manbaj and eastern parts of Syria are areas of influence of US forces. Since Erdogan’s threats, this is the first time that high-level US commanders have visited the region.

Manbeg is eighty km from Afrin on the west side, and the military council is in Manbaj to defend the city. This council is an ally of the democratic Syrian forces, but it is independent in its resolutions and most of its armed men are Arabs. Turkey says that the Manbaj military council, the Syrian democratic forces, Three different names.

The spokesman for the Pentagon said that the deployment of US forces in Manbaj comes as a clear symbol of the cleansing of Mnbj of the enemy and added that there is no need to crawl others in the attempts to liberate, in reference to the forces of the Euphrates Shield, which made Mnbj the next goal to liberate them from the forces of Syria, It is reported that clashes took place for the first time since the liberation of the city of Bab between the forces of the Euphrates Shield and the Syrian Democratic Forces in the vicinity of the town of Al-Arima.

The entry of the United States into Manbaj and the statements of the Pentagon indicate that Turkey is prevented from entering Mnbaj to control it. This is a clear indication that the world does not share with Turkey its vision of the conflict in northern Syria and the establishment of safe areas there. Turkey has repeatedly criticized the United States for supporting Syria’s democratic forces and causing This file in the dispute between the two countries in the presidency of Obama.

the battle of Manbeg and the fate of Trump’s relationship with Turkey:

In fact, the city of Manbaj is the next inevitable target for Turkey, for two main reasons.

–      First,because the US-backed Syrian Democratic forces captured Manbaj last year, an organization that Turkey has classified as terrorist groups emanating from the party Prohibited Kurdistan Workers.

–      Second,the Obama administration’s support of Kurdish militias as an effective combat force against state regulation in the region is in itself a blatant disregard of the Turkish government’s concerns, jeopardizing strategic relations with its main ally in the region.

–      Thus, Manbeg will be the first real test of the change in Washington’s policy in Syria under Donald Trump’s administration.

On the whole, the coming days will be crucial in determining the future of Turkish-American relations. At present, Turkey is proceeding with its cross-border military operations. In order to ensure the success of Operation Euphrates, Turkey will have to prepare to restore the city of Mnbaj from Syria’s democratic forces, although it can face many challenges. At the same time, Assad’s forces are still moving rapidly south-east of the Rif al-Bab in order to stop the progress of the Turkish army and the forces backed by Ankara.

Last month, the Munbaj military council, part of Syria’s democratic forces, agreed to hand over the western parts of the city to Syrian government forces. Looking ahead, Syria’s democratic forces are likely to evacuate the city and make way for Assad’s forces. If this happens, Turkey will find itself in direct confrontation with Assad and the Iranian militias, which in itself is one of the worst scenarios that Turkey seeks to avoid, because this will not only exhaust the army but will also cause tension between Moscow and Ankara.

Accordingly, if Ankara decides to continue its attacks to remove Syria’s democratic forces from Manbaj without the approval of the United States, the scenario of Operation Grapples is likely to recur. Turkey and the United States risk working on both sides of the conflict and supporting the conflicting parties in order to control one Border towns, in the past year. Consequently, Ankara’s unilateral intervention on the ground in Syria could lead to undesirable reactions from its US ally, as was the case at the beginning of Operation Euphrates Shield.

The next few days will determine the nature of cooperation with Turkey. Trump has decided to support the Kurdish militias. If this happens, it is expected to create a sharp tension that could lead to a diplomatic and political row between Ankara and Washington.

Over the past few days, the Syrian Democratic Forces have launched pre-emptive attacks in Raqqa, in order to restore towns and villages east of the city. In the light of these attacks, it seems clear that Syria’s democratic forces are trying to reveal their papers to the US-led coalition under the Trump administration. In response to what was said of Syria’s democratic forces, coalition forces shelled several bridges across the Euphrates River to express their support for them.

Based on the foregoing, Assad is the last possible option for Tramb, although Assad’s attempts to get closer to Trump are obvious. In this regard, Assad claims that Trump may be a “natural ally,” for his pledge on many occasions to fight state regulation. Moreover, Trump said that the presence of leaders such as Qaddafi, Saddam Hussein and Assad is much better than the chaos and emptiness created by their overthrow, and publicly expressed his acceptance of the idea of ​​normalization of relations with Syria if Assad carried out a series of superficial reforms .

On the other hand, Turkey-US relations are at the edge of the abyss, given the possibility of intensifying the conflict between them unless Turkey, the United States and Russia reach a compromise to ease the tension and meet the regional strategic aspirations that each party aspires to achieve.