Adam Taylor

Italian governments have a habit of falling apart.

In the past three decades, the country has had 13 separate prime ministers. Now, with Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte’s plan to resign on Tuesday after just over a year in office, Italy will probably add a new government to that tally.

But will the next one last longer?

Given Italy’s track record and the current political situation, the odds don’t look great. Even Italy’s periods of relative stability have been rocky: The only premier to serve a full five-year term since 1989 is Silvio Berlusconi, the brash billionaire who has been synonymous with scandal.

This level of political turnover in Italy is unusual for an advanced economy. Among Italy’s Western European neighbors, Germany has had three chancellors, France has had five presidents and Britain has had seven prime ministers in the time Italy had 13. Even Australia, notorious for its own problems holding onto a government in recent years, has had only nine prime ministers since 1989.

Conte’s announcement this week is unusual in some aspects, but typical in others. In office since June 2018, the legal scholar had been the independent head of what was the first real populist government in Western Europe, leading a coalition that included the anti-establishment Five Star Movement and the far-right League.

It became a fractious alliance. Matteo Salvini, deputy prime minister and leader of the League, pulled his party’s support from the government this month and pushed for early elections, hoping to capitalize on a surge in support in polls. Conte’s announcement on Tuesday was an indication that he would probably not win a no-confidence vote in Parliament.

But it looks like Salvini’s gamble may not pay off, either. Seeking to avoid a new election, the Five Star Movement may try to join forces with the center-left Democratic Party or even Forza Italia, the waning center-right party of the 82-year-old Berlusconi, analysts say.

Conte, who had no political experience, was tapped to lead the governmentin June last year after it became apparent there was no clear-cut winner. But as the League’s support stormed ahead in polls this year and Five Star collapsed, Salvini decided to make a move. As he announced his plans to resign Tuesday, Conte took aim at the League’s leader.

The departing prime minister said Salvini’s moves were “serious institutional recklessness, above all showing disrespect to Parliament and liable to tip the country into a spiral of political uncertainty and financial instability.”

Given Italy’s track record, that prediction looks like a safe bet.

Source; Washington Post