Pakistani Strategic Posture under Imran Khan | مركز سمت للدراسات

Pakistani Strategic Posture under Imran Khan

Date & time : Sunday, 19 August 2018

 

The recent Pakistani elections marked an important milestone in democratization of one of the largest Islamic countries in South Asia with nuclear weapons. More than 600,000 security personnel were assigned to protect voting offices because of threats by Taliban, the most famous terrorist group in Pakistan. Two Taliban-sponsored attacks in Karachi and Peshawar resulted in dozens of dead and wounded. This historical election will allow power transition from a civilian government whose mandate has expired to another government, the first time a civilian government has been able to complete its five-year mandate in a country that gained independence in 1947 and whose history is still marked by military coups.

Trends of Politics in Pakistan

Eight parties control the political reality in recent years:

  1. Pakistan’s Movement for Justice and Equality (AKP), a center-right party that draws much of his support from young people in urban areas. It is known as the National Movement for Justice in Pakistan. It was founded by the famous cricket player Imran Khan in 1996.
  2. The Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) which was formed by Zulfikar Ali Bhutto in 1967. It is a progressive left-wing party that enjoyed some socialist ideals. After Bhutto was executed for his alleged involvement in a 1979 murder by military ruler Zia al-Haq, his daughter Benazir Bhutto became head of the party until her assassination in 2007. PPP is headed by Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, Benazir’s son, but he does not campaign for security reasons.
  3. The Muslim Scholars Association, which is a religious right-wing party, it is led by the Islamic world Maulana Fazlur Rahman, it is a religious rightist party, gets most of its supporter from conservative groups in the north-western regions of the country and southern and western regions.
  4. “Awami” National Party, which is a secular left-wing party and was founded in 1986 to raise the issues of Pashtun nationalists in northwestern Pakistan along the Afghan border. It has won a number of seats and joined coalition governments. It is still influential in the northwestern region.
  5. The Pakistan Muslim League: It is known as a successful campaign to separate Pakistan-inhabited Pakistan and India, which is dominated by Hindus after independence from Britain in 1947.
  6. Nationalist Movement Party: It was formed by current leader Altaf Hussein to fight for the rights of Urdu speakers in Karachi.
  7. The Pakistan Muslim League It was formed as a branch of the Pakistan Muslim League – Nawaz Pavilion to contest the 2002 elections it won under Musharraf’s military rule.
  8. The Pakistan Islamic Group which is the largest religious party in Pakistan. It was formed during British rule six years before independence 1947. It seeks to implement Islamic law but has never won any previous elections independently.

So,Pakistan is dominated by feudal and bureaucratic military elite, so the decision is concentrated in the hands of traditional forces that control all political, social, economic and constitutional aspects of Pakistan. But, in order to understand the nature of the Pakistani political scene, the traditional strata of the army, intelligence, bureaucracy, schools and political parties that adhere to the general context must be considered.

Problems face Khans Presidency

With a population of 212 million, Pakistan has many hot files, which need to be managed well, so the initial indicators announced the victory of Khan in the election even went out to cast on his supporters «speech of victory», where he believes that the fight against corruption is the Pakistan road to the future.

Pakistan suffers from a crisis of balance-of-payments with foreign debts of $ 90 billion, domestic debt of $ 16 billion, and foreign currency covers only two months of imports. Khan believes that The IMF will be its savior in the short term, although it is not in the least likely to impede Washington lending it. In addition, Khan tends to receive support from China, where a $ 62 billion joint economic plan, known as the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, is a long-term investment that will increase trade.

Imran Khan and his party are pursuing capitalizing on his opposition to Nawaz and accusations of corruption to win the 2018 general election. Political instability will also strengthen the role of Pakistani army in politics.

Anyway, the military has to say crucial areas of defense to politics. Hence, it will be difficult for the current civilian government to consolidate itself, and that situation is unlikely to change. Even Nawaz Sharif, during his term as a prime minister, was unable to put an end to the influence of the military establishment, even though he came to power with a popular mandate. While he tried to assert the authority of the civilian government in areas such as foreign policy, he was unable to make an impact.

The question is whether Khan will be able to maintain his publics that were revealed by the general elections next year and whether he will be able to control a well-established party such as the Muslim League led by Nawaz Sharif.

During his campaign, Khan made several electoral promises; good governance was on the top of his agenda. He reaffirmed his promise to eliminate corruption during his victory speech on July 26. Although Khan himself has a picture that shows him to be a corrupt leader, his policy of recruiting the “elect” of the party’s lucky fortunes makes one worry. Khan claimed he would attract Pakistanis from abroad to invest in his country. This reminds me of Nawaz Sharif’s promise to the Pakistanis abroad in 1997, when he became prime minister.

The Strategic Position of Pakistan

Pakistani Strategic Posture is related to the most complicated position in it rational context. So, Pakistan faces an embarrassing security situation , so Khan stressed his work on fighting terrorism, which threatens the stability of his country and will support the security and stability of its neighbor Afghanistan because it would achieve the security and stability of his country as well, and declared his readiness for dialogue with India and that every step of peace by India will meet several Steps from Pakistan, and he looks forward to balanced relations with the United States and mutual interests and will not be just a follower.

Perspectives of foreign policy

Khan supports the opening of the border with Afghanistan and the establishment of joint investment areas, and seeks to establish a more balanced relationship with Afghanistan and the United States.

In addition, Pakistan’s relations with its nuclear neighbor India are heading toward tension as a result of the policy of absolute consensus between Khan and the military elite, and he has a legacy of hostile statements on the Kashmir issue.Moreover, diplomatic challenges have grown as relations with Washington have strained as a result of India’s current security policies. And his previous position on Washington requires him to reconsider his foreign policy toward the United States.Imran Khan faces economic challenges as foreign reserves have deteriorated, trade imbalances have increased and inflation rates have risen.

Pakistani relations with the gulf countries under Khans presidency are strongly linked to the developing complication in the middle east, especially with the Iranian destructive and terrorists activities in the region. Pakistan under Imran khan may strengthen it ties with Tehran, so that Gulf states concern this emerging rapprochement between Pakistan and the most supporter for terrorist organization by its topologist regime since the Iranian revolution in 1979.

On the other side, US Congress passed a resolution halving military aid to Pakistan next year to half that of last year, US President Donald H. Trump’s draft resolution did not link aid to the Pakistan army’s pursuit of the Haqqani network in Pakistan and to prevent what Washington calls havens Safe haven for the Afghan Taliban in Pakistani territory, an advanced position on what the Obama and Trump administrations were drawing on the Pakistani army to provide assistance.

The relationship with the Pakistani military has increased the support of Washington for the Pakistani army to try to fuse the border with Afghanistan, although the Afghan government does not recognize the Durand line separating them from Pakistan as an international border, which angered the former Afghan President Hamid Karzai and the Afghan government, which sees the funding of Washington Fencing in recognition of the Durand Line an international border.

Therefore, Imran is in need of dialogue with Washington and needs dialogue with him to cooperate in the fight against terrorism and pressure the Taliban in Afghanistan to negotiate with the US and Afghan governments and to benefit from Pakistan in the pressure on neighboring Iran in return for granting financial loans to Pakistan from the International Monetary Fund Modern military and the restoration of economic aid received by Islamabad from Washington and up to one billion dollars annually. as a result to is deepening economic problem, Pakistan’s need for foreign investment is inevitably led to cooperation with Washington.

Conclusion

Pakistani politics under Imran Khan needs a creative approach to deal with the chronic economic and the emerging opposition by the tradition Islamic wings on one hand, and the military hegemony on the politics on the other hand. on the other side, more pragmatic foreign policy is needed by Khan to make a rational balance between both U.S and other great influential power like Russian, India and Gulf state.

 

 Political Studies Unit

Reference

Population of Pakistan (2018 and historical), Available on; http://cutt.us/WMMOi

Imran Khan and the future of India–Pakistan relations,

http://cutt.us/BHy3P

Imran Khan Is Pakistan’s Donald Trump. Here’s What That Means for Relations Between Their Countries,http://cutt.us/imWcL

Pakistan’s Khan talks of U.S. ties, but anti-American rhetoric has many wary, http://cutt.us/EOOBq

Pakistan’s Imran Khan calls for more ‘trustworthy’ ties with U.S. http://cutt.us/LIVaR

Imran Khan is ‘Pakistan’s Donald Trump’: Trevor Noah, http://cutt.us/sEkFa

عمران خان.. صفحة جديدة فى تاريخ باكستان، : http://cutt.us/3xssj

عمران خان يلقي خطاب النصر في الانتخابات http://cutt.us/rmHhU

 

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