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Idlib, The Syrian city, is witnessing rapid developments related to the fate of the most complex conflict in Syria. It has become at one of the most stages in the conflict that resulted in the killing of thousands of Syrians in addition to domination of terrorist groups over one of the most important countries in the Middle East. Several reports indicate that the Syrian regime led by Bashar Al Assad has mobilized many military personnel from its forces around the region during recently. several days before they withdrew again in a campaign launched by Turkey to prevent military intervention in the city. It publishes its military bases in the vicinity in such a way as to confuse the future of these developments with further uncertainty, especially as this is linked to the calculations and interests of other forces involved in the conflict in Syria.
Indeed, the Syrian regime launched a military offensive to restore Idlib, the last stronghold of the armed Islamist groups in Syria. Idlib is the only region still outside the control of the Syrian regime. External actors are still fighting over the Syrian issue, and the international community concerns war crimes. Despite the changing positions of countries associated with the conflict, and much of the demand for the departure of Bashar al-Assad, otherwise the interests of these countries may hinder the objectives of the Syrian regime and its Russian ally.
Idlib is on the top of the list of the Syrian provinces in terms of the military presence of the terrorist factions listed on the international terrorist groups. In addition the Turkish military units that were sent secretly to this region in fighting between all these factions as a result of reflection differences Among the supporters of such factions following the dispute between the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and its allies against Qatar and the Turkish regimes, which stand in one trench supporting terrorism in the region.
Idlib is about 6,000 km. The Syrian Arab Army has liberated 2,000 km. The rest of the area is 4000 km in Idlib, along with the other areas of Aleppo and Hama, which are about 6000 km. It has s a very important position in terms of the fact that it is a decisive battle between the armed opposition groups as well as the terrorist organizations. In view of the differences in the foreign agendas of many countries involved in the Syrian conflict, Armed groups opposed to the Syrian regime, supported by the United States and Turkey, and fought by Russia and Iran and the Syrian regime, and gaining field developments in the Syrian city of Idlib special importance during the current period. The scope of the ongoing conflict between the regime of Bashar on the one hand and the armed opposition and terrorist organizations, particularly the front of the victory and ISIS on the other hand, the editorial board of the Levant, which includes Noureddine Zanki movement, and a brigade right, front Ansar al-Din, and the Army of the year.
Idlib is located along the border with the coastal province of Lattakia, the stronghold of the regime and the Syrian president’s family. In recent years, the province’s population has increased significantly and currently has a population of about 2.5 million. This is due to the influx of rebels and civilians who have been evicted from the fortresses controlled by the regime (Al-Ghouta, Aleppo, Daraa), in accordance with the agreements concluded with Damascus, which were guaranteed by Turkey.
United States is preparing for a new military strike to prevent the liberation of Idlib, which could be the end of all the rival armed factions there, once the battle for the Syrian army has been decided, and announced by Russia that Washington has launched a military strike on regular forces under the name of protecting civilians and fear of using The Syrian regime has chemical weapons, against the background of the triple attack by US, French and British forces on April 14, targeting a number of sites in Syria in a process that it said came to punish Damascus for a chemical attack in Douma in eastern Guta.
The dominant terrorist factions in Idlib vary in the following ways:
The Sham Liberation Organization controls 60 percent of the Idlib (which consists of fighters in the Nasra Front, the former arm of al-Qaeda in Syria) under the command of Abu Hamed al-Julani, as well as the dormant cells of a sympathetic organization, August.
Turkish role in supporting terrorist groups in Idlib
Turkey supported the major insurgent groups in a coalition, formed in early August under the banner of the so-called National Liberation Front, which includes two important Islamist groups, Ahrar al-Sham and Nuruddin al-Zanki, as well as four other factions, There are about 70 thousand fighters and jihadists and rebels in the region, and some of them were transferred by the Syrian regime itself during previous battles.
Ankara tends to the negotiations in Idlib, and postponement of the military solution for an indefinite period, considering that the military solution means defeat in Syria, and the loss of its role in the equation of the next negotiation, and that its presence in the Syrian scene will prevent the Kurdish issue of survival, which in turn threatens Turkish security in its quest to establish Self-rule on the southern Turkish border.
Ankara is an obstacle to the military operation in Idlib; Turkey has deployed troops throughout the province and has strengthened its military positions. Turkey fears the influx of refugees into its territory again; it has received more than 3 million Syrian refugees since 2011.
Ankara concerns about the formation of an alliance of Kurdish regional alliance includes the Kurds of Syria and Iraq to the ranks of the PKK in Turkey; which could push them to secede in the southeast of Turkey from the central administration in Ankara, and the formation of a regional Kurdish entity, especially after their alliance with the Syrian regime in the battle of Afrin Launched by the Turkish army, killing many of them.
The Kurds became the indirect link between the Syrian regime and the Gulf states. A high-level delegation of the People’s Protection Units (the armed wing of the Syrian Democratic Kurdish Party) visited Abu Dhabi and Riyadh on August 12, headed by the commander-in-chief of Siban Himo; In the Gulf that he is sure that the leader of the organization calling the terrorist Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, is still alive, and hiding in the Sunni province of Anbar and on the border with Syria.
Miserable Fate for Terrorists in Idlib
Future of terrorists in Idlib is linked to the vision and priorities of the influential power in the Syrian conflict. While USA adopts the policy of keeping terrorism in training camps to be called upon later, Russia and China adopt the logic of their final elimination within Syria so that their danger does not shift. Chechen extremists and Chinese Uyghurs who are involved in the ranks of ISIS and al-Qaeda, which means that the terrorist threat is transferred to their own land.
Turkey and Qatar will often have a reprisal policy. Having made huge sums of money to finance terrorists, they can adopt a reprisal policy to keep terrorists in Syria or areas in flames in the region only to deny defeat. Faced with these criteria, Syria’s militants wait for more than one choice, depending on the nationality of the terrorist, whether or not he is Syrian, the entity in which he works, whether he is religiously observant or coming from political backgrounds.
“Liberation of the Sham” and al Qaeda, which are the most dangerous armed organizations, are likely to move to Libya. Qatar and Turkey support this move to support their organizations in the ongoing conflict in Libya.
ISIS may have to organize an activist to be active in Iraq and Syria. It is likely to move to Sinai, as Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan pointed out in one of his speeches. In addition, the organization may be heading to Libya because it provides a suitable environment because of the turmoil it suffers. Some terrorists may be returning to Europe and thus we may witness future terrorist operations near European cities.
The National Liberation Front (FNL) may be the first collapsing entities because it is constituted by heterogeneous entities and under Turkish patronage. Its establishment was for political rather than intellectual reasons. Therefore, these Turkish-backed militants are likely to choose places identified by Ankara. Perhaps they will be driven to Europe by the latter, which may go to Libya, along with a part of them who will remain in Syria.
Idlib is the last stronghold of terrorist groups that have been displaced from Deir Ezzor, Raqqa, Aleppo and some areas liberated by the Syrian army, where tens of thousands of terrorist gathered in their families, making the battle of great importance on the military and political level.
the biggest gains of the United States in Idlib is to prolong the war for as long as possible, because the status of the situation (control of Russia, Turkey and Iran on the Syrian situation) will reduce the share of the US in the negotiation phase, all the actors in the Syrian file (hostility with Turkey because of the issue of the pastor detained, and its hostility with Iran because of its withdrawal from the nuclear file, while Russia is in a struggle for influence mainly in the region).
So, the United States is likely to conduct a limited military operation in the event of a military attack on Idlib against the forces of the Syrian regime and the participating Iranian militias, in conjunction with the increased presence in the areas of East Euphrates and support the Syrian Democratic forces.
· Raja Abdulrahim,Terror Group Puts Plan for Syrian Demilitarized Zone at Risk, http://cutt.us/MsTwb
· Turkey vows to send troops to Idlib after Russia deal, http://cutt.us/50iqq
· Ari Khalidi, Turkey designates Al-Qaeda’s Syria branch as terrorist group, http://cutt.us/Fv6M5
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